Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat to Earth

The vastness of space is full of surprises, and one of them is Asteroid 2024 YR4, a massive space rock that has caught the attention of scientists worldwide. Initially, NASA estimated the likelihood of this asteroid colliding with Earth at 1.2%, but that probability recently increased to 2.3%—a small but significant jump.

While 2.3% might not seem like much, in the realm of asteroid impact probability, it’s enough to raise concerns. That’s because even a small change in trajectory due to gravitational influences from planets or space debris could shift the asteroid’s path, bringing it closer to Earth than originally expected.

According to experts, if 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, it could happen as soon as December 22, 2032. The asteroid is believed to be roughly the size of the Statue of Liberty, meaning its impact could be devastating. Scientists are actively studying its trajectory to determine whether intervention measures might be necessary.

There’s also the possibility that it will pass safely by Earth, much like the Apophis asteroid, which was once thought to be a major threat but is now projected to miss our planet in 2029. But in the worst-case scenario, what if 2024 YR4 doesn’t hit Earth—but instead crashes into the Moon?

The ‘city destroyer’ may hit in just under eight years (**Getty Stock Photo**)

Could 2024 YR4 Hit the Moon Instead?

While most concerns focus on an Earth impact, researchers have also considered another possibility: What if the asteroid collides with the Moon instead?

According to David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, there is a 0.3% chance that 2024 YR4 could crash into the Moon rather than our planet. While this probability is significantly lower than an Earth impact, it remains an interesting scenario worth discussing.

The Moon is often hit by smaller asteroids and meteoroids, as it lacks an atmosphere to burn up incoming objects like Earth does. However, an impact from an object the size of 2024 YR4 would be far more dramatic than the usual collisions that leave tiny craters. If such a strike occurred, it would be a rare event—something we haven’t seen happen on this scale in modern history.

Scientists use computer simulations to predict the outcomes of such impacts. The Moon’s low gravity and lack of atmospheric resistance would mean that the asteroid would hit at full velocity, likely leaving a crater several miles wide. But would this event pose a danger to Earth?

Would a Lunar Impact Affect Earth?

Many might assume that an asteroid hitting the Moon could lead to catastrophic consequences for Earth, but experts say the effects would be minimal.

In an interview with New Scientist, Rankin explained:

“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”

This is because the Moon, despite being Earth’s closest celestial neighbor, is still about 238,855 miles (384,400 km) away. If an impact were strong enough to send debris toward Earth, most of it would be too small to survive entry into our atmosphere, burning up before it could reach the ground.

Professor Gareth Collins, a planetary scientist at Imperial College London, reassured the public further:

“We would be quite safe on Earth. Some small ejecta fragments might reach Earth, but they would be totally harmless.”

The most visible effect on Earth would likely be a bright flash seen on the lunar surface, followed by a newly-formed crater that could be observed through telescopes. Seismic sensors left on the Moon by past space missions might detect vibrations from the impact, helping scientists study how such events affect planetary bodies.

While it’s fascinating to imagine, a lunar impact wouldn’t cause any direct harm to humans or disrupt daily life on Earth.

How a Lunar Impact Might Change the Moon

Even though Earth would be safe, the Moon itself would bear the brunt of the impact. Given the asteroid’s size, a collision could result in:

The formation of a new crater on the Moon’s surface, potentially several miles wide
Ejected lunar debris that could temporarily create a dust cloud around the Moon
Minor gravitational effects that might slightly alter the Moon’s orbit (though not enough to affect Earth significantly)

In addition, some scientists speculate that an impact this large could release trapped gases from beneath the lunar surface, temporarily creating a thin exosphere of dust and vapor. This wouldn’t last long but could offer valuable insights into the Moon’s geology.

Would a Moon Impact Change the Night Sky?

The Moon has been struck by asteroids many times throughout history. If 2024 YR4 were to crash into it, it could leave a visible crater—possibly even observable through telescopes from Earth. Some experts also suggest that the collision could cause a briefly visible explosion due to the release of kinetic energy.

However, the long-term changes to the Moon’s appearance or behavior would likely be negligible.

Could an Asteroid Deflection Plan Backfire?

While a Moon impact wouldn’t be catastrophic, an Earth impact would be a completely different story. Scientists are considering ways to deflect or destroy dangerous asteroids before they reach us, but even these efforts come with risks.

The DART Mission: A Possible Solution?

One of the most well-known asteroid deflection strategies is NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). This mission successfully altered the trajectory of a small asteroid in 2022, proving that kinetic impact technology could work in the future.

There’s a chance the asteroid could collide with Earth (**Getty Stock Photo**)

However, planetary scientist Dr. Robin George Andrews has warned about the dangers of improperly executing an asteroid deflection. In a Twitter post (formerly X), he explained:

“Nobody wants to accidentally ‘disrupt’ an asteroid because those components can still head for Earth. As I often say, it’s like turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray.”

If scientists miscalculate, they could risk breaking the asteroid into multiple fragments, making it harder to predict and more dangerous overall.

Social Media Reactions: What Are People Saying?

As news about Asteroid 2024 YR4 spreads, people across social media platforms have been sharing their thoughts, concerns, and even memes about the possibility of an impact. While some are worried about the asteroid’s potential to hit Earth, others are joking about the idea of it colliding with the Moon instead.

Here are some trending posts from Twitter (X), Reddit, and Facebook:

🔥 Twitter/X Reactions

🧑‍🚀 @AstroGeek42: “NASA says there’s a 2.3% chance of impact. Time to start building that asteroid bunker! 🚀 #Asteroid2024YR4”
🔗 Read the post

🌕 @LunarWatcher: “If 2024 YR4 smashes into the Moon, can we finally get a new crater named ‘Moon McMoonface’? Asking for a friend. #SpaceHumor”
🔗 See the discussion

🚀 @SciFiDreamer: “Plot twist: The asteroid hits the Moon, and it knocks loose an ancient alien spacecraft buried beneath the surface. Someone call Hollywood! 🎬👽”
🔗 Join the conversation

🛸 Reddit Discussions

🔵 r/space: “If 2024 YR4 actually hits the Moon, do you think it could create visible dust clouds that we can see from Earth? I feel like that would be a once-in-a-lifetime event!”
🔗 Join the thread

🔴 r/conspiracy: “What if NASA isn’t telling us everything? What if this asteroid was guided? 👀 #StayWoke”
🔗 Read more here

🌍 Facebook Conversations

👨‍🚀 Space Science Daily: “Experts say the asteroid is the size of the Statue of Liberty. Would you rather it hit the Moon or risk a deflection mission that could go wrong? Tell us in the comments! 🚀”
🔗 Read the Facebook post

🌌 NASA Watchers Group: “If the Moon gets a new crater from this impact, will we be able to see it without telescopes? #MoonCrash2024”
🔗 See what people are saying

Where Would 2024 YR4 Hit If It Struck Earth?

If deflection efforts fail and 2024 YR4 does collide with Earth, experts have mapped out a potential “risk corridor” where it might strike.

David Rankin’s predictions suggest the asteroid could impact areas including:

Northern South America (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador)
The Pacific Ocean
Southern Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)
The Arabian Sea
Africa (Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria)

A land impact could devastate entire cities, while an ocean impact could trigger tsunamis.

Should We Be Worried?

For now, there is no immediate cause for concern, but space agencies will remain vigilant in their efforts to keep Earth safe from cosmic threats. Scientists will continue tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4, especially during its next close approach in 2028, when they will reassess the risks and possible mitigation strategies.

While we can’t control what happens in space, ongoing research and technological advancements are bringing us closer than ever to being able to prevent catastrophic asteroid impacts. Until then, we can continue looking up at the Moon and the stars, knowing that experts are keeping watch.

Featured Image Credit: Getty Images/MARK GARLICK/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY